You call the season
Picks save automatically on this device. Live games stay selectable until the source confirms a final result.
Select teams to win out
Existing losses and ties block win-out selections. Teams playing each other cannot both win out. Deselecting a team removes its automatic picks.
Both models hold your picks fixed. These are chances of qualifying and earning seeds, not chances of winning postseason games.
Your playoff picture
Records include completed games and your picks. Unpicked games contribute no result. Official tiebreakers determine order; unresolved teams share a place. A projected seed is not a clinch.
Tiebreaker explanations
Models, rules, and assumptions
Paths Remaining treats each remaining game as three equally likely outcomes by default. This measures paths, not realistic likelihood. You may exclude unpicked ties. Picked and final ties always count as half a win and half a loss.
Forecast Odds uses ESPN FPI pregame game projections, independently across games. FPI does not react to live scores here. Unpicked ties have zero forecast probability because the feed does not provide a separate tie forecast. Missing forecasts make the model unavailable; no 50/50 replacement is used.
When official score or touchdown criteria cannot be established from outcome picks, standings remain unresolved. Probability estimates use a uniform random choice at the first unresolved official criterion and are labeled assumption-dependent. Exact game enumeration does not make this tie assumption exact. No score margins or touchdowns are invented.
Up to 729 game outcomes are enumerated; otherwise each model samples 2,000 seasons. The maximum approximate 95% sampling margin is ±2.2 percentage points, excluding forecast and tiebreaker assumption uncertainty. Samples cannot prove clinches or elimination. No conference championship or Super Bowl simulation is performed.
Scores are read from shared saved snapshots only. Scheduled checks begin five minutes after kickoff, then run every two minutes until final. Schedule reconciliation runs daily. This page refreshes only when you request it. Forecast refreshes run separately once daily and retain prior usable forecasts when unavailable.